Back from Mar-a-Lago.
Had an incredible time at the Trump memecoin gala. Shook hands with some interesting people. Watched Mike Tyson talk about crypto. Ate well.
And came home to find out my short hit its take profit… without me.
Yes. I’m bearish on Bitcoin right now. Well, sort of. More on that in a second.
But first — let me tell you about the most expensive flight I’ve taken in a while.
The Trade I Managed Badly (And What I Learned)
Before I left for the event, I had a short running on Bitcoin.
It was in profit the entire weekend. Clean setup. Good entry. I was happy with the thesis going in.
Then, on my flight home, I got stopped out. Full -1R loss.
Within a few hours of landing, price hit my original take profit target.
Frustrating? Yes. The end of the world? No.
Here’s the thing about trade management that most people learn the hard way:
You can have a perfect entry and still not capture the full move.
When you put on a trade, you’re making a positive expected value decision with the information you have. That’s the job. Trade management — where you set your stop, when you take profits — is a separate skill entirely.
The trade was plus EV going in. I was happy with the analysis. But I couldn’t manage it actively at 30,000 feet, and it stopped me out before the move played out.
The lesson isn’t “never take risk.” It’s this:
If you’re confident in your setup before entry, make sure your risk parameters can survive you being away from the screen. You can’t manage what you can’t watch.
So, Am I Actually Bearish?
Sort of.
The event was genuinely impressive. Forget what you’ve read in the headlines. The room was full of market makers, hedge fund managers, AI entrepreneurs — serious people with serious capital. Not a single “meme millionaire” in sight, at least not where I was standing.
But here’s what stuck with me. A lot of the smartest people I met that weekend — people who really understand markets — are losing right now. Getting the direction wrong, or just getting chopped around. It’s a reminder of how brutal this market is at the moment. When sharp people are struggling, that tells you something about the environment.
My bearishness isn’t really about the event, though. I’ve been tracking a range for weeks, and we’re sitting right at the top of it. That’s the real reason I’m leaning short.
Bitcoin is trading around $77,100 as of today. Down roughly 18% over the past year. Well off its all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025.
I’m not calling a crash. But I do think the short-term price action has more room to the downside before we see a real leg up.
Macro Picture: What’s Moving Bitcoin Right Now
Let’s zoom out. A few things are worth watching.
🟢 Bullish Macro Factors
Fed pivot expectations. Markets are pricing in rate decisions carefully. Any dovish signal — cuts or a pause — tends to be a green light for risk assets including crypto.
Weakening dollar. Bitcoin often moves inversely to DXY. A softer dollar environment historically lifts BTC.
Institutional ETF inflows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue pulling in capital. When big money flows in consistently, it puts a floor under price.
Geopolitical instability. With tensions rising globally (Strait of Hormuz, energy prices spiking), some capital rotates into Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value.
🔴 Bearish Macro Factors
Rates staying higher for longer. The Fed hasn’t cut yet. Tight liquidity conditions squeeze speculative assets.
High oil prices. Crude pushing toward $100 hurts risk appetite. Markets hate the combination of inflation + growth concerns.
Political theatre fatigue. The Trump memecoin event gave a brief price spike to $TRUMP. But BTC barely moved. That tells you something. Hype without fundamentals doesn’t sustain rallies.
No full capitulation yet. Michael Terpin — one of the earliest Bitcoin investors — recently argued BTC hasn’t bottomed. He’s calling for a possible low near $57k before any real bull market resumes. Others disagree. But the uncertainty itself is a headwind.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
This is the part I actually enjoy.
🟢 Bullish TA Scenarios
- $80k reclaim. If BTC can break and hold above $80,000, that flips the short-term structure bullish. It’s the key psychological level. Expect heavy resistance there.
- Higher low formation. If we hold $74–75k on any pullback and bounce with volume, that’s constructive. A series of higher lows would signal accumulation.
- New York open momentum. US session opens can bring big volume. A strong open above $77.5k could squeeze shorts fast.
🔴 Bearish TA Scenarios
- $76k support breaks. We’re sitting near it. A daily close below here opens the door to $72–74k pretty quickly.
- Lower highs continuing. BTC has been making lower highs since the October peak. Until that pattern breaks, the bias is down.
- $80k rejection pattern. Multiple attempts to push through $80k have been sold. Each rejection adds weight to the downside case.
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My Current Trade
I re-entered short today.
Not a revenge trade. Not emotional. Just something I like in the charts.
- Entry: $77,450
- Stop: Moved to breakeven
- Target: $72,000–$74,000 range
Could we tag $80k first? Absolutely. New York open brings volatility, and a squeeze toward $80k is a real possibility in the short term.
But my lean is bearish for the next few days. The setup made sense at entry. I’m managing risk. Let’s see how it plays out.
If You’re Not Trading: DCA Is Your Best Friend
Not everyone should be shorting Bitcoin.
Actually, most people shouldn’t be.
If you’re a long-term believer in Bitcoin, the short-term noise matters less than you think.
Dollar cost averaging (DCA) means buying a fixed amount at regular intervals — weekly, monthly, whatever fits your budget. You don’t try to time the market. You just keep buying.
When price drops to $72k, your regular buy looks brilliant. When it’s at $80k, you still buy. Over time, your average entry smooths out.
The people who built real wealth in crypto didn’t catch every top and bottom. They bought consistently and held with conviction.
If you don’t have time to watch charts, DCA into BTC and forget about it.
You Don’t Need a Big Portfolio to Trade
This is something I talk about in our compounding guide.
The math is simple. If you consistently earn 2% per week, a $100 account grows to 5 or 6 figures in a few years. Keep that going, and the numbers become extraordinary.
The point isn’t the specific numbers — it’s the mindset.
Most traders fail because they’re chasing big wins on small accounts with too much leverage. That’s the wrong game.
Start small. Learn risk management. Build consistency first.
Capital follows skill. Not the other way around.
You don’t need $10,000 to start learning. You need discipline and a process.
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Final Words
Took a -1R loss on a plane. Came home. Re-entered the short.
That’s trading.
You won’t always be at your screen. You won’t always capture the full move. Sometimes you do everything right and still don’t get paid.
What matters is the process. Enter with a positive expected value thesis. Manage your risk. Accept the outcome.
Bitcoin at $76k is an interesting level. The macro is mixed. The technicals lean bearish for now — but $80k could happen before any real downside.
Stay sharp. Manage your stops. And maybe think twice before taking a trading position right before a long flight.
See you in the next one.
— Morten
If you enjoyed this blog, you may want to check our other trading blogs.
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Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
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