The period spanning two years since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving has presented distinct hashprice environments, demonstrating varying performance between different hashrate hedging strategies. Analysis reveals that any rolling hedge strategy, irrespective of contract duration or denomination, has historically outperformed direct spot (FPPS) mining revenues over this timeframe. This period has been characterized by significant shifts in network difficulty and fluctuating transaction fee levels, impacting the profitability of Bitcoin mining operations.
Key Takeaways
- Two years post-April 2024 halving show two distinct hashprice regimes, with rolling hashrate hedging outperforming spot mining in both.
- From May 2024 to April 2026, BTC-denominated hedges led, yielding +11.4% compared to spot for a 1 EH/s operation, largely due to unexpected network difficulty growth and low transaction fees.
- In the trailing twelve months (May 2025–April 2026), USD-denominated hedges showed superior performance (+9.2% vs. spot), while BTC-denominated hedges remained near flat.
- The hashprice regime shifted from a difficulty-driven environment favoring BTC hedges (May 2024–Q4 2025) to a BTC price uncertainty and difficulty decline scenario favoring USD hedges (late 2025–April 2026).
Market Dynamics
Year 1: May 2024 – April 2025 — The Difficulty Grind
The initial year following the April 2024 halving was marked by aggressive network difficulty increases, driven by the widespread deployment of advanced ASIC mining hardware. This surge in network hashrate led to a sustained rise in mining difficulty, outpacing the projections embedded in many forward hashrate contracts. While the Bitcoin price showed volatility, it generally trended upwards, providing some buffer. However, transaction fees, which saw a brief spike around the halving event, quickly receded to a minimal percentage of block rewards and remained low throughout this period.
For miners operating on a standard Forward Profit Per Share (FPPS) model, this environment proved challenging. The rapid increase in difficulty meant that for every unit of hashrate deployed, the Bitcoin earnings were systematically reduced by the network’s adjustments. Spot hashprice, measured in BTC per PH/s per day, consistently settled below the rates anticipated by forward contracts, which had not fully accounted for the pace of difficulty escalation. BTC-denominated hedging strategies effectively capitalized on this discrepancy. By selling hashrate forward at rates that reflected earlier market expectations, miners locked in higher BTC hashprice values than what eventually materialized in the spot market due to the escalating difficulty.
Year 2: May 2025 – April 2026 — The BTC Price Collapse and Difficulty Decline
The second year of the post-halving epoch presented a contrasting market dynamic. Bitcoin’s price experienced a significant downturn, falling approximately 45% from its cycle peak in October 2025. Concurrently, network difficulty, after reaching a peak in late October 2025, entered a period of contraction for six consecutive months. This decline was attributed to a combination of factors including the curtailment of less efficient mining operations, seasonal weather impacts on energy costs, and sustained pressure from historically low USD hashprice levels.
The average USD hashprice reached an all-time low in February 2026. This environment led to a reversal in the outperformance of hedging denominations. While BTC hashprice saw some recovery as difficulty decreased, USD-denominated forward contracts entered into during periods of higher BTC valuation (like November 2025 when BTC traded above $90,000) offered significantly higher guaranteed hashprice rates compared to the spot market’s settlement. Miners who had strategically sold USD-denominated forwards during this window were able to secure premiums ranging from 5% to 15% over the subsequent spot rates.
Hashrate Hedging Results
Since the 2024 Halving (May 2024 – April 2026)
Over the entire 24-month period since the 2024 halving, BTC-denominated rolling hedge strategies demonstrated superior returns compared to spot mining. Specifically, a 5-month rolling BTC hedge strategy outperformed spot mining by 11.4%. For an operation of 1 Exahash per second (EH/s), this translates to approximately 50 additional BTC earned over the two-year period, achieved on identical hardware without requiring additional capital expenditure.
Trailing Twelve Months (May 2025 – April 2026)
The performance within the most recent twelve-month period (May 2025 to April 2026) presents a different picture. In this timeframe, USD-denominated strategies emerged as the leaders. A 5-month rolling USD hedge strategy yielded a 9.2% outperformance against spot mining. In contrast, BTC-denominated rolling hedges, both 5-month and 4-month strategies, showed minimal gains, hovering just above breakeven at approximately 0.1%.
It is important to note that rolling hedge figures typically exclude associated fees and bid/ask spreads. Hedging is fundamentally a risk management tool designed to provide certainty and predictability in cash flows, rather than a direct profit-generation mechanism. By reducing operational uncertainty, hedging can lower the cost of capital and enhance the attractiveness of mining operations to investors.
Understanding The Hashprice Regime Shift
The divergent performance between the two analyzed periods highlights a critical shift in the prevailing hashprice regime. This shift offers a framework for determining when each forward contract denomination is likely to offer superior results.
BTC-denominated forward sales tend to outperform when network difficulty increases at a faster pace, or when transaction fees remain lower, than what was anticipated by the forward market. This was the dominant scenario from May 2024 through Q4 2025. Aggressive hashrate expansion led to rapid difficulty increases and low fee revenue, causing spot BTC hashprice to settle below forward contract rates. The forward market consistently underestimated the network’s capacity expansion and the scarcity of transaction fee revenue.
USD-denominated forward sales tend to outperform when the Bitcoin price declines more rapidly than the forward market’s expectations. This dynamic was evident during the second year of the post-halving period. The substantial drop in BTC price, coupled with forward USD hashprice contracts established at higher BTC valuations, resulted in realized spot USD hashprice rates falling below the locked-in contract rates.
While the full 24-month window still shows a preference for BTC strategies due to the strong influence of the Year 1 difficulty-driven environment, the performance in Year 2 clearly indicates a regime change. The narrowing gap between the performance of BTC and USD hedges across these two distinct periods provides real-time evidence of this evolving hashprice dynamic.
Source: : hashrateindex.com