The Ultimate Guide to Trading the BTC Halving – By Trading-Guru for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by Trading-Guru
In this idea, I will go into depth what happened exactly during the last two Bitcoin halvings. I will show you how to approach BTC trading over the coming months by looking at the perfectly matching halving fractals, telling us what we can expect in the future.
— The first halving —
The first halving event occurred on the 29th of November, 2012 at block height 210,000. The price was trading near its ATH of around $14 just before the halving. Then, it moved all the way up to $1000, giving BTC a massive popularity boost in the media.
The first 2 months after the first halving, literally nothing happened. The price was absolutely flat. That’s why I want to reiterate, don’t actually expect magic to happen when the third halving is here. It will probably be a really underwhelming experience at first.
— The second halving —
The second halving happened on 10th of July, 2016 at block height 420,000. This kick-started the famous one year long bull-run of 2017 where the price was brought from $600 all the way up to the ATH of $19000.
Note the drop in price directly after halving. The immediate effect was really disappointing again. Anticipation builds up faster than the actual effect.
— The third halving —
Fractals! A great way to put future price behavior directly on the chart, by taking past price behavior into account. What’s really special this time is that the two fractals of the BTC halving afterplay match perfectly when overlayed. This is rare and might actually hold some future price indication value.
So, without further ado! How do you trade this!?
For the HODLers, the moonbois, we can expect BTC to move to $250 000 by the end of 2021 if the fractal plays out.
For the day traders, the scalpers, we have actually seen that the hype of halving has artificially increased the price and that directly after the halving event NOTHING happens. In fact it might probably decrease looking at the second halving.
If you want to play the game, the underwhelming nothingness of the effect of halving will probably mean you can get a good short in. Like what we’ve seen in 2016. I expect the price to drop a bit further, after having the bears take over in the last week. The bulls will come back later, but you can get a good few trades in before that. We’ve seen that the true halving effect takes a few months to start to play out.
If you play the long game, get that extra mortgage on your house and go all-in, because this gonna be your last chance in a while to earn a 20000% profit ;). But seriously, it does look like the halving has a bullish long term effect. If it’s all a self-fulfilling prophecy and/or purely due to the increased media attention that goes hand in hand with the halving itself, who knows. But if we get rich while doing so, who really cares right?